NFL Desk

The NFL Desk is LineGoat's data-driven pro football desk. It is our automated scan filtered to NFL games, not a human handicapper. It only publishes when a US sportsbook is offering a better price than the sharp no-vig fair price on the same game and line. On days with no NFL games in the next 28 hours, the desk is quiet on purpose.

How NFL Desk finds an edge

1. Each morning (about 7:00am Arizona time) we pull odds for NFL games starting in the next 28 hours from Pinnacle and nine US sportsbooks.
2. We remove Pinnacle's vig to get a fair probability for each side of every moneyline and spread.
3. If a US book's price beats that fair price by 1% to 12% expected value, it's an edge. We publish the best ones here with the price, book and math.
4. Every published edge is logged to the Edge Tracker. The Goat's top three edges each day also get their Pinnacle closing line recorded at kickoff, so you can see closing line value (CLV), the best long-run sign that an edge was real.

Results swing a lot in small samples. A +EV bet still loses often. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 21+.